Killer Application
New technologies breaking into the market either have to displace an already established technology or find entirely new applications. For example the introduction of the compact disc over twenty years ago, displaced the well established vinyl LP market. The new technology was so far superior and the costs fell so rapidly that within a few years the LP was history.
Alternatively, the LCD industry, which began over thirty years ago with wristwatch and calculator displays, only really took off with the advent of the lap-top computer. This entirely new application fed the LCD industry. The lap-top computer display was the killer application that allowed the LCD industry to grow and thrive. For years consumers tolerated poor performance and relatively high prices because it was the only game in town. The industry rapidly grew. The quality of displays greatly improved and the prices fell.
By the late 90's the industry was ready to take on the deeply entrenched CRT industry. The first target was the desktop monitor, where small size and stable images were premiums consumers would pay for. It is only in the last couple of years that LC TV's have taken on the CRT head to head and consumers are finally replacing those behemoths in their living rooms. Plasma TVs followed a bit of a different track, finding their initial killer application in large, direct view flat screens.
So how will flexible displays enter the market? Will they challenge directly established glass based displays or create their own markets? The jury is clearly still out on this one. The consumer has yet to speak. Everyone in the industry knows flexible is coming and many bets have been placed on a variety of technologies. The vision of the killer application depends not only on the technology selected but also the return required to justify the investments made to develop a technology and bring it to market. If a technology has eaten up hundreds of millions or even billions in development the killer application is necessarily pushed to the high-end displays that compete in quality and performance with the current glass displays. They demand a quick "CD" type of replacement of an embedded technology.
However, if the investments have been more modest the first killer application may also be much more modest, such as monochrome displays for watches or credit cards. The return on investment can be justified and the manufacturing infrastructure built from initial modest beginnings. As the production processes improve and the quality of the displays grow the applications will become more sophisticated and eventually we will make that display that rolls out from a cell phone or pen.
The companies in FLEXMatters have followed a very lean financial approach. They are moving to market with relatively modest investments and can therefore succeed by serving initially relatively small markets. As they build the manufacturing infrastructure they can continue to improve the performance of their flexible displays, expand the markets and grow the industry. As I said above, the jury is still out on what the killer application will be for flexible displays. I think it will be relatively simple and serve a very specific niche. The trick is to make our investment match the potential return. In this game to large of a bet may shut you out of the competition. The next few years will be interesting.